The relations between Cuba and the United States entered a new stage in December 2014 when the respective presidents announced the beginning of a series of negotiations that led to the official restoration of diplomatic relations, followed by new talks in search for an eventual normalization. President Obama’s March visit to Cuba highlights the rate of change that is occurring in the relationship. However, these are just the most recent developments in a long, complicated and troublesome history. To understand the process, it is essential to address the complex evolution of the relationship and its core features. These exist in different levels, from configurations of the international system to domestic developments in both countries, articulated in the political, economic, social and cultural spheres. From those starting points it is possible to explain the recent decisions made and the most recent outcomes, as well as the forces shaping them, within a systemic perspective.
Based on a rigorous analysis of a broad spectrum of factors, we are in the position to project a series of scenarios for the future development of the process, in what is intended to be a contribution to an open and long running discussion on one of the most controversial relations in the hemisphere.
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